Geometric Reliability of Neural Population Codes: Sampling Calibration and Within-Session Nonstationarity

Trial-to-trial variability limits how reliably neural population geometry can be estimated, while comparisons across populations depend on neuron and trial counts, response quality, and clustered sampling. We quantified within-session geometric reliability using Shesha, the Spearman correlation between representational dissimilarity matrices estimated from independent trial subsets, in all 39 Steinmetz Neuropixels sessions and in olfactory bulb and piriform cortex recordings from Bolding and Franks. Steinmetz analyses matched neurons and repetitions, compared observed reliability with a stationary residual-bootstrap expectation, and used mouse-level or mouse-clustered inference. Mean matched reliability was 0.0402 across 312 area-by-session recordings. Regional differences and reliability above the stationary benchmark did not survive correction. Temporal effects received the strongest support: interleaving early and late trials increased reliability relative to blocked allocation (Δ=0.02666, q=0.001953), and RDM similarity declined with within-session lag (mean mouse-level slope =-0.01912, q=0.001953; n=10 mice). Outer-cross-fitted reliability was not associated with choice-direction coupling or stimulus or response-direction decoding after correction. Olfactory comparisons remained descriptive because few paired sessions and no animal identities were available. In held-out simulations, associative recurrence outperformed feedforward subspace denoising but not divisive normalization. Representational geometry became less reproducible with temporal separation within a session, and comparisons across neural populations require sampling calibration and independent inference.