Don't Stop Long-Context Continual Pre-Training Too Early: An Empirical Scaling Law

Long-context continual pre-training (LCCP) is widely used to improve long-context capability, but how its benefits scale with the number of tokens used for LCCP remains unclear. We investigate this question through modeling, monitoring, and validating the benefits of scaling LCCP. First, we establish an empirical additive power law relating long-context performance to model size and the respective token budgets of short-context pre-training and LCCP. Experiments across five model scales and more than one hundred short- and long-context budget configurations show that the fitted law reproduces the observed trends and extrapolates well to held-out model scales. Second, we introduce Constant-Last4, a training and observation protocol that averages the four most recent consecutive checkpoints from a constant-learning-rate run to enable stable monitoring along a single extensible training trajectory. Under this protocol, the same scaling-law form fits well and accurately predicts the LCCP performance trajectory of a 1.22B-parameter model trained on approximately 100B LCCP tokens. Finally, downstream evaluations along this trajectory show continued improvements in long-context performance, with no clear sign of saturation within the evaluated range. These gains persist after both 128K context extension and supervised fine-tuning, with benefits extending to long-context understanding and agentic tasks. Together, these results argue for continuing to scale LCCP rather than stopping early: its gains are stably observable along an extensible trajectory, quantitatively predictable, and transferable to downstream tasks.