Daily Papers

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring intermediate steps that might dramatically impact the outcome. We hypothesize that there exist key forking tokens, such that re-sampling the system at those specific tokens, but not others, leads to very different outcomes. To test this empirically, we develop a novel approach to representing uncertainty dynamics across individual tokens of text generation, and applying statistical models to test our hypothesis. Our approach is highly flexible: it can be applied to any dataset and any LLM, without fine tuning or accessing model weights. We use our method to analyze LLM responses on 7 different tasks across 4 domains, spanning a wide range of typical use cases. We find many examples of forking tokens, including surprising ones such as punctuation marks, suggesting that LLMs are often just a single token away from saying something very different.

This paper studies forking, a generalization failure discovered in NanoGPT autoresearch. Under data replay, models with an over-encoding n-gram memory branch show a sharp separation of training and validation loss at epoch boundaries, resembling the shape of forks. We study this phenomenon in a controlled vanilla NanoGPT setting and reproduce it in a DeepSeek-style model with Engram. Mechanistically, repeated updates sharpen the continuations observed in training while suppressing the probability of unseen continuations, whose loss grows with each pass. The n-gram module creates weakly interacting context-specific subspaces, amplifying this effect. Low-frequency contexts contribute most of the gap, whereas larger training budgets and heavily crowded tables suppress it. We also observe forking in short-budget, heavily repeated SFT and RL-like regimes. The contributions of this paper are twofold: (1) Forking reveals yet another curious phenomenon in deep learning, in addition to grokking and double descent. (2) Forking is an unexpected and unpleasant by-product of tricks proposed by autoresearch agents. While these agents produce an enormous number of results that seem useful, we should always be careful with their results.

Reference-based image quality assessment (IQA) metrics aim to reflect how humans perceive the perceptual distance between a pair of images. To learn how the human visual system (HVS) operates, recent reference-based IQA metrics heavily rely on human-annotated data. Mean opinion score (MOS)-based pointwise scoring, which assigns a scalar quality value per image, is preferable for annotation but is prohibitively expensive to collect at scale and is known to be noisy due to inconsistent human judgments. As an alternative, two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) pairwise labels have gained popularity due to their reliability and efficiency, but they capture only relative comparisons between pairs. In this paper, we propose a fully automated data generation pipeline that generates pointwise perceptual distance labels between image pairs without any human annotation. Our approach exploits the generative dynamics of diffusion models as a perceptual distance proxy, where the coarse structure of an image is generated in the early timesteps and the fine details are generated in the later timesteps. Images that fork early in the generation process share only coarse structure and are perceptually far apart; images that fork late differ only in fine detail. We demonstrate that the diffusion trajectory aligns well with the human visual system, and use this forking moment, FoMo, as a reference-grounded distance label to supervise the training of a reference-based IQA metric. The pointwise labels, which support universal comparison between arbitrary image pairs, enable an information-rich training objective. Extensive experiments across diverse backbone architectures confirm the effectiveness of our generation pipeline, outperforming human-annotated datasets in multiple benchmarks.

Before developers can use a software project, they must first get it to run. This often requires installing the right language runtime, system packages, build tools, and test commands. Recent LLM-based agents automate environment setup by inspecting a repository, writing setup scripts, running them, and repairing the resulting errors. However, these agents still follow a sequential trial-and-error loop: they try one setup route, wait for slow commands to finish, observe the failure, and only then decide what to try next. Because environment commands often take long to run, this sequential workflow makes setup slow and limits exploration to one route at a time. We present SpecBuild, an LLM-based environment setup system designed to be both faster and more successful through speculative forking. SpecBuild explores candidate setup branches in parallel, returns the first committed environment, and discards the rest. It applies this design at two granularities: strategy-level forking explores alternative setup routes, such as different base images and dependency policies, while command-level forking predicts failures of running commands and prepares repair branches before those failures are observed. We evaluate SpecBuild on Multi-Docker-Eval, covering 334 tasks from 40 repositories and 9 programming languages. Across three backbone models, SpecBuild improves the success rate by 6.4 to 12.0 percentage points over the strongest baseline, while reducing average setup time by 22.4% to 41.6%. These results show that LLM-based environment setup need not trade speed for reliability: parallel speculative exploration can make agents both faster and more successful.

Although LLMs have demonstrated improved performance by scaling parallel test-time compute, doing so relies on generating reasoning paths that are both diverse and accurate. For challenging problems, the forking tokens that trigger diverse yet correct reasoning modes are typically deep in the sampling tree. Consequently, common strategies to encourage diversity, such as temperature scaling, encounter a worsened trade-off between diversity and accuracy. Motivated by this challenge, we treat parallel reasoning as a set-of-next-token-prediction problem, and incorporate a set-based global loss into Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) using self-supervised bipartite matching between our global forking tokens and unique reasoning traces. We observe that, while naive fine-tuning with multiple reasoning traces collapses these unique reasoning modes, our proposed method, Set Supervised Fine-Tuning (SSFT), preserves these modes and produces emergent global forking tokens. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that our SSFT consistently outperforms SFT under both Pass@1 and Cons@k metrics.