Daily Papers

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has demonstrated promising gains in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, its dependence on domain-specific verifiers significantly restricts its applicability to open and general domains. Recent efforts such as RLPR have extended RLVR to general domains, enabling training on broader datasets and achieving improvements over RLVR. However, a notable limitation of these methods is their tendency to overfit to reference answers, which constrains the model's ability to generate diverse outputs. This limitation is particularly pronounced in open-ended tasks such as writing, where multiple plausible answers exist. To address this, we propose DARL, a simple yet effective reinforcement learning framework that encourages the generation of diverse answers within a controlled deviation range from the reference while preserving alignment with it. Our framework is fully compatible with existing general reinforcement learning methods and can be seamlessly integrated without additional verifiers. Extensive experiments on thirteen benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in reasoning performance. Notably, DARL surpasses RLPR, achieving average gains of 1.3 points on six reasoning benchmarks and 9.5 points on seven general benchmarks, highlighting its effectiveness in improving both reasoning accuracy and output diversity.

Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick(PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence level, thereby preserving marginal coverage. While PT potentially yields a deceptively lower interval length, it introduces practical vulnerabilities: the same input can yield completely different prediction intervals across repeated runs of the algorithm. We formally derive the conditions under which PT achieves these misleading improvements and provide extensive empirical evidence across various regression and classification tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric interval stability which helps detect whether a new CP method implicitly improves the length based on such PT-like techniques. Code is available at https://github.com/benben-cd/PT-Conformal-Prediction.

Specialized prompt injection guards are deployed in front of document analysis systems, but no false positive rate has been published for any of them on legal contracts. We measure eleven open-weights guards on two corpora of legal contracts and find that existing guards struggle: document-level false positive rates are as high as 92.39%; two guards fall below chance on paired AUC; and a five-regex baseline is not Pareto-dominated by any guard in the panel. Controlled probes locate model-specific as well as general failure modes. Prompted LLMs resolve the tested failures, including a second threat category (unauthorized scope claims) on which every guard scores zero. A cascaded LLM solution, where the positives of a mid-tier model are verified by a frontier model, is 6.5x cheaper than using exclusively a frontier model and approaches its performance.

Agent frameworks increasingly delegate work by forking sub-agents; a common default makes the child inherit the parent's full working context. We measure how the effect of inherited state changes with capability, where C_m denotes clean fork-fresh accuracy. We compare 3 inheritance policies: Reset (fork fresh: base evidence only), Selective (curated handoff: + the useful prior conclusion), and Full (implicit fork: + the useful conclusion and d copies of a superseded conclusion) over a same-family ladder (Qwen3 0.6/1.7/4/8B) on a frozen, closed-set, action-scored benchmark. Every task is solvable from the base evidence, so performance loss can be attributed to reliance on stale state. (1) Deference to superseded state falls sharply with measured capability C_m (the slope's confidence interval, CI, excludes zero on every family) across 2 synthetic primitives plus MuSiQue and HotpotQA. (2) On the Qwen3 synthetic ladder, net inheritance harm follows a nonmonotone pattern: a mid-capability model (Qwen3-1.7B) is a statistically significant local minimum of net harm, falling below its fork-fresh baseline (Δ(32)=-0.19 [-0.25, -0.12]) and both neighbors, while the weakest model stays near-neutral and the strongest models stay robust. We call this harmful capability range a danger band. A within-model counting-difficulty sweep shows that the effect depends on model class even at matched C_m, and a live parent-to-child fork reproduces the mid-model harm. (3) Curated Selective handoff improves average accuracy over Full on all 3 datasets, largest at the in-band model, while the fixed-threshold capability router fails on the other datasets; a transferable router would need to predict the balance between reuse benefit and stale-context penalty. The benchmark is frozen and version-hashed.

Tool-call judges evaluate argument values proposed by LLM agents. We find that they accept a correct value less often when their input holds no reference for it, that is, no text that says what the value should be. This happens when the value is a default value from the function schema that the user did not mention, when it has to be inferred, or when the text it comes from was cut from the judge input. We call this drop in acceptance the derivation gap. It appears across all seven judges we evaluate, including System One models CLM and Jev. The gap is not only a truncation artifact: correct default values have the largest gap on a benchmark with no truncation. A controlled source-relocation test shows that judges follow the reference in their input: they favor a visible incorrect value over a correct value whose source is hidden. We introduce DeRef (Derived Reference): a separate model reads the full history without seeing the candidate and writes a reference for the judge. Across three benchmarks, DeRef improves overall argument AUROC for all judges tested. On the controlled test, it raises AUROC from chance or below to between 98.40 and 99.59.

Aligned language models gate behaviors such as refusal and language routing through sparse feed forward neurons, yet no theory predicts when a single neuron intervention controls a behavior coherently rather than collapsing the output. We develop a budget normalized control window framework for single neuron steering. A dose along one write direction reduces to one control coordinate: the alignment between the residual stream and the write, driven along a universal saturation curve in units of a coherence budget set by the residual norm divided by the write norm. Coherent control exists when a behavior trigger lies below the collapse ceiling. The same coordinate governs benign mode switches and refusal; the ceiling follows from weights and one generic forward pass, while triggers are measured at rollout. On fifteen held out neurons, the predicted ceiling has mean absolute error 0.14, about 0.07 in bulk layers, and the committed open or closed verdict holds on eleven against a ten of fifteen majority baseline. Closed cases expose three failure modes rather than violations: collapse before trigger, too little depth to propagate, or a normalization that caps how far one neuron can push. The law explains why local gradient attribution anti predicts control: true controllers write off the readout axis and carry a near zero first order gradient. A forward only contrastive screen made precise by the window recovers controllers that attribution misses. On refusal, the hardest case, intervention success is typed, not scalar: coherent bypass and strict actionable reach separate, so a neuron can flip refusal in fluent, on task text with no actionable content, and genuine actionable reach appears only for three of six audited Llama pivots and only at later rollout horizons. Single neuron steering is therefore a budgeted, typed audit of controllability rather than a fixed dose anecdote.

Leaderboards rank long-horizon agents by their final outputs. Yet a higher score alone does not establish whether two systems are comparable or which stage accounts for the difference. Unequal evidence, inputs, or budgets can affect scores, and statistical corrections do not remove this mismatch. We introduce compositional controllability to address these questions. A comparison window covers one stage, several stages, or the whole agent. Our central result bounds the gap between observed and controlled score differences using only nuisance outside the window. This yields an admissibility test applied before scores are inspected. Inadmissible comparisons are refused. For admissible pairs, an ordering is certified only when the score gap exceeds the combined sampling and nuisance radii; otherwise, it remains undecided. These decisions give each system a rank interval. We introduce BioLitBench, a benchmark of 2,042 biomedical articles represented as structured claim graphs. Among seven published pipelines, a conventional statistical analysis declares a winner in 14 of 21 pairwise comparisons. Yet the top-ranked system alone received the target review's bibliography. To isolate pipeline performance, our test requires matched inputs and a fixed backbone model. It refuses 11 of the 21 comparisons, including every comparison involving the top-ranked system. Seven of the 14 conventional conclusions fall within these refused pairs. The same comparison windows support stage-level training. We train SCRIBE on Qwen3.8-27B using rewards measured at each stage's exit. Under matched evidence, SCRIBE achieves a certified rank interval of [1,2], with certified advantages over all evaluated published pipelines and the evaluated Claude and OpenAI agents. Under same pool, SCRIBE matches the strongest published retriever and is certified above three published pipelines.

VLM safety is commonly evaluated through input- and output-level classification. Such classification is necessary, but it does not reveal whether a safety state is accessible or controllable inside the model. We argue that multimodal safety evaluation should therefore report a controllability profile alongside behavioral classification, separating representation-level detectability, cross-modal specificity, intervention sensitivity, and benign-preserving selectivity. Using implicit toxicity as a stress case, we instantiate this profile on LlavaGuard and Qwen3.5 with sparse feature decompositions. LlavaGuard admits localized handles with a narrow benign-preserving intervention range and modest downstream safety gains, whereas Qwen3.5 supports strong representation-level readout but no comparable selective-control regime under the tested operators. These results show that internal readout and controllability can diverge. Future multimodal safety benchmarks should therefore report not only behavioral safety metrics, but also whether safety-relevant internal signals can be intervention-tested and controlled within a validated operating range.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

A central aspiration of mechanistic interpretability is controllability: if we know where a behavior is represented in a model's activations, we should be able to modify it. This rests on a hidden premise -- that the direction which detects a behavior and the direction which controls it are the same, or close. We test this geometrically: what is the angle between the direction that best detects a behavior and the one that best causes it? If detection implies control the cosine is near 1; otherwise it quantifies a detection-intervention gap. On Gemma 2-2B-it, output format (clean JSON vs markdown fencing) collapses both roles onto one axis. Hallucination does not: the model detects fake entities with perfect linear separability (AUC = 1.000 from layer 5), yet that direction sits at cos = 0.12 (about 83 degrees) from the direction producing a refusal -- a small, reproducible alignment, far from the cos = 1 that "detection is control" would require. A detector built from activations, with no chosen tokens, likewise fails to align (cos = -0.06). The gap generalizes: across four models from three families and two scales (1B-9B), cos stays in [0.12, 0.20], identical before and after instruction tuning (0.1197 vs 0.1200), placing its origin in pretraining. A 15-degree rotation toward the refusal direction partially bridges it -- 73% and 60% refusal on two held-out fake-entity categories at 1.8% false positives. We then ask whether this cosine predicts steerability, and it does not: detection is a high-dimensional class, not a single direction, and what separates the steerable case is functional, not readable from a static angle. The cosine is a weight-computable signature of the dissociation between knowing and steering, not a predictor of it.

Financial backtests of large language models (LLMs) are meaningful only if the model did not already know the outcomes it is asked to predict. Practitioners guard against this by trusting a vendor's stated knowledge cutoff, by asking the model what it knows, or by instructing it to answer as of a past date. To verify whether any of these safeguards can be trusted, we introduce FinDendro, a benchmark of 2,226 dated U.S. facts from 1999 to 2026, covering monthly macroeconomic series, month-end stock prices and Federal Reserve decisions. Each fact yields four prompts: a value question, Recall and Predict questions that pair each candidate value with a claim of knowing or guessing without a declared date, and a Predict question with a historical declared date. Controls for persistence and dominant outcomes keep chance accuracy near 0.27. Results show that for most frontier models, self-reports understate knowledge. GPT-5 answers 76% of controlled facts correctly but claims to know 38%, and answers 61% of the facts it says it does not know. Knowledge claims can persist beyond the measured knowledge boundary, by up to seven quarters, and a declared date removes most of the claims of prior knowledge while leaving accuracy unchanged. Backtests inside a model's training window therefore cannot be certified leak-free by self-report, instruction or stated cutoff. These findings motivate behavioral measurement of temporal knowledge boundaries, and FinDendro provides a benchmark and procedure for selecting backtest periods based on demonstrated factual knowledge.

Self-driving laboratories couple a learned design surrogate to an instrument, and on every new target domain it must answer four questions: when it can be trusted, how many target measurements it needs, which to make first, and when to stop adapting, switch models or escalate. We state a framework making each measurable (a competence ratio, a budget k^*(varepsilon), a time-to-target and a priced decision) and instantiate it without wet experiments on six public droplet-microfluidic and liposome tables as offline laboratories: 107 leave-one-group tiers whose rows are hidden labels. A sealed, pre-registered programme (two sealed negative validations and a pre-registered test on three more tables) and seven frozen closed-loop protocols, each run twice, yield 23 findings. Shift cost is stratified by shift type; no label-free statistic certifies individual candidates; random-split model-family rankings predicted neither the sealed nor the loop rankings. Warm-start residual boosting returns a surrogate to 1.25times its development reference within 20 target rows in 94% of chemistry tiers (27% under a strict noise-floor reading), 90% of laboratory and 40% of device tiers, and a budget planned from the shift type on other tables is not measurably worse on a new one. In the loop, one gain survives drift and shuffled-label controls on all tiers, carried by the sparsely sampled ones: proposing at once and warm-starting on every measurement reaches a 10% target in 2.80 measurements against 3.31 for the reference, and in 5.72 against 11.35 for random proposals on 301 hard units at a 3% tolerance. No label-free acquisition rule survives the shuffled-label control, no interval-aware proposal or other model family does better, and no threshold rule on the tested diagnostics beats always continuing once escalation is priced. No wet-lab validation is claimed.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Driving on roads is restricted by various traffic rules, aiming to ensure safety for all traffic participants. However, human road users usually do not adhere to these rules strictly, resulting in varying degrees of rule conformity. Such deviations from given rules are key components of today's road traffic. In autonomous driving, robotic agents can disturb traffic flow, when rule deviations are not taken into account. In this paper, we present an approach to derive the distribution of degrees of rule conformity from human driving data. We demonstrate our method with the Waymo Open Motion dataset and Safety Distance and Speed Limit rules.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

Control evaluations measure whether monitoring and security protocols for AI systems prevent intentionally subversive AI models from causing harm. Our work presents the first control evaluation performed in an agent environment. We construct BashBench, a dataset of 257 challenging multi-step system administration tasks, and evaluate whether various safety measures can prevent an adversarially constructed AI agent from covertly downloading and executing malicious code in this environment. This multi-step setting introduces new attack and defense dynamics, which we investigate in order to design novel control protocols that prevent safety failures without hindering the ability of non-malicious agents to perform useful work. We introduce a class of control protocols called resample protocols that dynamically take additional samples of certain actions. We find these protocols significantly improve on existing techniques by selectively blocking the AI agent from executing suspicious code and incriminating the agent by generating additional examples of dangerous behavior. We measure the tradeoff between attack prevention and usefulness; our best protocol combines resampling with analysis of previous steps, reducing the success rate of attacks from 58% to 7% at a 5% cost to the performance of a non-malicious agent.

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score -- in the online setting. This extends conformal prediction to apply to a larger class of online learning problems. Our method guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even when the underlying data distribution shifts drastically, even adversarially, over time in an unknown fashion. The technique we propose is highly flexible as it can be applied with any base online learning algorithm (e.g., a deep neural network trained online), requiring minimal implementation effort and essentially zero additional computational cost. We further extend our approach to control multiple risks simultaneously, so the prediction sets we generate are valid for all given risks. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we conduct experiments on real-world tabular time-series data sets showing that the proposed method rigorously controls various natural risks. Furthermore, we show how to construct valid intervals for an online image-depth estimation problem that previous sequential calibration schemes cannot handle.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

We examine two properties of AI systems: capability (what a system can do) and steerability (how reliably one can shift behavior toward intended outcomes). A central question is whether capability growth reduces steerability and risks control collapse. We also distinguish between authorized steerability (builders reliably reaching intended behaviors) and unauthorized steerability (attackers eliciting disallowed behaviors). This distinction highlights a fundamental safety--security dilemma of AI models: safety requires high steerability to enforce control (e.g., stop/refuse), while security requires low steerability for malicious actors to elicit harmful behaviors. This tension presents a significant challenge for open-weight models, which currently exhibit high steerability via common techniques like fine-tuning or adversarial attacks. Using Qwen3 and InstrumentalEval, we find that a short anti-instrumental prompt suffix sharply reduces the measured convergence rate (e.g., shutdown avoidance, self-replication). For Qwen3-30B Instruct, the convergence rate drops from 81.69% under a pro-instrumental suffix to 2.82% under an anti-instrumental suffix. Under anti-instrumental prompting, larger aligned models show lower convergence rates than smaller ones (Instruct: 2.82% vs. 4.23%; Thinking: 4.23% vs. 9.86%). Code is available at github.com/j-hoscilowicz/instrumental_steering.

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

LLM agents choose tools and arguments from context that mixes user requests, tool outputs, retrieved records, memory, and untrusted text. Evidence can be relevant without being authorized to determine a decision, so a correct action need not be grounded only in permitted evidence. We introduce a target-specific authorization audit that labels context factors separately for each tool and argument target. Its primary test holds the task, proposition, position, and policy fixed while changing only the proposition's source authority. We then test behavior when valid evidence is weakened and use context-subset interactions as a secondary localization diagnostic. Across 450 controlled next-action tasks and multiple open-weight LLM families, trusted and untrusted variants produce different actions in 5.4 percent of competing cases versus 1.7 percent of supporting cases. Under controlled degradation, unauthorized competition is retained in a full-correct, mixed-error, clean-correct pattern in 2.4 percent of comparisons, with a 95 percent confidence interval from 2.1 to 3.0 percent. These are controlled stress-set rates, not deployment prevalence. The models respond to textual source-authority cues, but this does not prevent untrusted evidence from influencing their actions.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39times more quantization error overall (p < 5 times 10^{-7}), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9\% of rows (κ= 0.873, 95\% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95\% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

In this paper, a novel machine learning derived control performance assessment (CPA) classification system is proposed. It is dedicated for a wide class of PID-based control industrial loops with processes exhibiting dynamical properties close to second order plus delay time (SOPDT). The proposed concept is very general and easy to configure to distinguish between acceptable and poor closed loop performance. This approach allows for determining the best (but also robust and practically achievable) closed loop performance based on very popular and intuitive closed loop quality factors. Training set can be automatically derived off-line using a number of different, diverse control performance indices (CPIs) used as discriminative features of the assessed control system. The proposed extended set of CPIs is discussed with comprehensive performance assessment of different machine learning based classification methods and practical application of the suggested solution. As a result, a general-purpose CPA system is derived that can be immediately applied in practice without any preliminary or additional learning stage during normal closed loop operation. It is verified by practical application to assess the control system for a laboratory heat exchange and distribution setup.

Continuous monitoring of generative AI systems requires detecting distribution shifts in the unstructured data they ingest and generate. Existing monitoring methods typically control false alarms by requiring the discrepancy measure used to detect shifts to be *pre-specified*. However, for unstructured data, pre-specification creates a sensitivity--breadth trade-off: a narrowly defined measure is sensitive to the anticipated shift but may miss unexpected changes, whereas a broadly defined measure may detect a wider range of shifts but with reduced sensitivity. Although adaptively hypothesizing the shift direction can overcome this limitation, such data-dependent adaptation generally invalidates conventional false-alarm guarantees. We reconcile adaptivity with statistical validity through testing-by-betting, reframing sequential changepoint detection as a betting game in which the bettor continually updates its hypothesized shift direction, or witness function, as new observations arrive. We introduce *asymptotic e-detectors*, which approximate the pre-change distribution using a calibration set of size m, and prove that they asymptotically control the average run length to a false alarm as m increases. Empirically, calibration sets as small as m=30 provide effective control. We then develop adaptive monitoring strategies ranging from black-box bettors that learn from embeddings to interpretable bettors based on LLM-proposed concepts. Across three real-world datasets, including data from a clinical AI scribe deployment, adaptive monitors detect shifts faster than fixed monitors at the same false-alarm level. Further, when the true shifts are sparse and interpretable, LLM-concept monitors provide the fastest and most interpretable detection, while also guiding root-cause diagnosis for complex shifts.

A control technique is developed via Reinforcement Learning that allows arbitrary controlling of the position of an acoustic cavitation bubble in a dual-frequency standing acoustic wave field. The agent must choose the optimal pressure amplitude values to manipulate the bubble position in the range of x/lambda_0in[0.05, 0.25]. To train the agent an actor-critic off-policy algorithm (Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient) was used that supports continuous action space, which allows setting the pressure amplitude values continuously within 0 and 1, bar. A shaped reward function is formulated that minimizes the distance between the bubble and the target position and implicitly encourages the agent to perform the position control within the shortest amount of time. In some cases, the optimal control can be 7 times faster than the solution expected from the linear theory.

Closed-loop evaluation is widely regarded as a more faithful way to assess end-to-end (E2E) driving models than open-loop evaluation, and Bench2Drive, built on the CARLA simulator, has become the dominant benchmark for it. We show that its evaluation protocol itself contains pitfalls that can misrepresent the models scored on it. Bench2Drive's comfort metric, adapted from nuPlan, has several implementation errors and a segmentation scheme that rewards standing still, so it mostly measures how long a vehicle stays stationary, correlating with stationary time at r = 0.97 across eight models. We propose a corrected, distance-based metric that cuts that correlation to r = 0.06. Under it, the strong driving-score/comfort tradeoff the original metric reports is no longer detectable once models are compared at matched driving speed, which suggests that comfort trades against how fast a model drives rather than against how well it drives. We also uncover two pitfalls in how the harness supplies navigation signals: the default controller can replace a model's own steering with an angle toward the route target point, and the target point supplied at evaluation time can differ substantially from what a model saw in training. We demonstrate both on UniAD and VAD, where their effects differ sharply, and argue that future closed-loop evaluations should check for them. We will release all fixes as standalone code, so corrected comfort scores can be obtained from logged trajectories without re-running closed-loop simulation.

Tool-using automation systems, from scripts and CI bots to agentic assistants, fail in recurring patterns. Common failures include unsafe side effects, invalid arguments, uncontrolled retries, and leakage of sensitive outputs. Many mitigations are model-centric and prompt-dependent, so they are brittle and do not generalize to non-LLM callers. We present Policy-First Tooling, a model-agnostic permission layer that mediates tool invocation through explicit constraints, risk-aware gating, recovery controls, and auditable explanations. The paper contributes a compact policy DSL, a runtime enforcement architecture with actionable rationale and fix hints, and a reproducible benchmark based on trace replay with controlled fault and misuse injection. In 225 controlled runs across five policy packs and three fault profiles, stricter packs improve violation prevention from 0.000 in P0 to 0.681 in P4, while task success drops from 0.356 to 0.067. Retry amplification decreases from 3.774 in P0 to 1.378 in P4, and leakage recall reaches 0.875 under injected secret outputs. These results make safety to utility trade-offs explicit and measurable.

Counterfactual fairness audits of clinical language-model agents report a flip rate: how often an action changes when only the patient's demographic descriptor changes. Part of that rate is not demographic. A stochastic agent also changes its own action when nothing changes, and a flip rate cannot be interpreted without knowing how often. We measured it. Re-running one condition ten times over sixteen synthetic vignettes at default sampling changed a clinical agent's action in 8.7 percent of replicate pairs, from 2.2 percent for intensive-care escalation to 17.9 percent for controlled-substance caution, an output given no operational criteria. Across six models from five vendors, pooled floors ranged from 2.5 to 23.7 percent; in this panel neither disclosed size, vendor, nor hosting ordered them. The floor depends on the decoding configuration: majority voting over five draws removed 39 percent of it (95 percent confidence interval (CI) 18 to 64); at temperature 0 three of four locally served models showed no disagreement, but a hosted model still did. We also show that, for a binary action, the flip rate expected under no demographic effect equals the floor and a real effect adds only its square, so a flip rate inside the floor is not evidence of fairness, and direction must be tested with a signed paired test. We give a four-step reporting procedure and release FairMedAgent, the harness, with its protocol, vignettes and analysis scripts, so any team can measure the floor for its own agent.

We propose RegLLM, a diagnostic harness for bounded autonomy in regulated agentic workflows. It instruments six trustworthiness signals: citation validity, source grounding, schema compliance, escalation correctness, constitutional alignment, and unsafe-action rate. Signals are distinguished by their source of supervision: programmatic verifiers, task-level escalation labels, or AI-judge scores. A deterministic runtime supervisor blocks ungrounded answers and forces escalation, logging interventions. The same domain constitution informs evaluation, training rewards, and serving guardrails. Task-level should-escalate labels make the act-versus-defer decision a measurable training signal. We demonstrate the harness at smoke scale. An offline reference run (n=12) lifts escalation recall from 0 to 0.67 and reduces unsafe-action rate from 0.33 to 0.08 when governance is enabled. Two single-GPU Qwen2.5-3B LoRA/DPO pilots (n=8, same seed and evaluation split) expose substantial variation: nominally identical RL-base configurations yield task success of 0.25 versus 0.12 and escalation recall of 1.0 versus 0.5. An answer-quality adapter changes recall from 1.0 to 0.5 in Run A, but from 0.5 to 1.0 in Run B. An escalation-aware variant produces no measurable change in Run B. These small pilots do not establish reliable adapter effects or production readiness. Their contribution is diagnostic: configuration variance can overwhelm apparent tuning effects on bounded-autonomy metrics, motivating larger evaluation sets and repeated runs.